Great overview of where the web is going. I should write a better version of this! But until then you should reed this:
Social Media: Closed social-network sites cannot survive in their current form, and yet they are so dominant today. So the transition to open and pervasive will be a big and messy fight… which will be great fun for journalists to cover!
Actually I think they will open up and link up – facebook and webpress and plaxo are already on this tract.
Advertising: Advertisers will adopt a barbell approach: CPM for branding, and CPA for direct-revenue generation (as soon as publishers figure out how to make money selling CPA). CPC will still be dominated by Google but will become less dominant as CPA gains traction. Google will play in CPA and CPM but won’t dominate as it does in CPC. Publishers will sideline CPA because nobody will be able to compete with the CPC price set by Google. Ventures that bridge the gap between publishers wanting to sell CPM and advertisers wanting to buy CPA will do well.
Revenue: Primary revenue will come from subscriptions and transactions, with advertising as one driver of those revenue lines. Today, we are in transition and in recession, so any revenue is good.
Content: UGC reduced the cost of content but created too much junk. Curation (adding human editors to automated UGC content) will be aided by semantic technologies that aim to do what humans currently do well.
Start-Up Hero: Today, it’s “Nobody” because we are all in a hangover funk. In the near future, entrepreneurs really will hold the best cards; financiers will be secondary.
Funding: The “Big VC” model is broken but will carry on for ages (“Zombie VC”). Angels and small VCs are in the cat-and-bird seat today. But they need a revived public market or something other, which we’ll call “private + transparent.”
Prime Market: This is a century-long shift, like the one from Europe to America. Asia is not ready yet, America is in turmoil, and Europe is conservative, so this is another transitional phase.